Buenos Aires - March 12, 2026 - Total News Agency (TNA) - The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release this Thursday the variation in the Consumer Price Index (IPC) for February, in a context where most private estimates agree that inflation would have remained around 3% monthly, very close to the 2.9% recorded in January. The Institute also noted that the financial exchange rate played in favor by retreating compared to January, which helped to partially contain other pressures. In turn, the consulting firm C&T for Greater Buenos Aires measured an increase of 2.9% monthly and warned that February, which is usually a calmer month, this time received the impact of several simultaneous factors. In other words, the disinflation process looks stalled and with contradictory signals, while some sectors show some moderation and others continue to rise forcefully. The Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) projected an inflation of 2.7% for February. At the same time, that same survey of expectations estimated that the annual price increase could close the year around 26.1%, a target that, in light of the persistence observed in the first months, still appears demanding. The persistence of increases in food is again an especially uncomfortable data point, because it is the chapter with the greatest social impact and the most visible effect on mass consumption. The Libertad y Progreso Foundation also calculated an inflation of 2.8% for February and estimated an annual variation of 32.7%, which, in its view, would imply an acceleration for the fourth consecutive month. If that projection is confirmed, the Government will face another month without breaking a price dynamic that, far from dissipating, has been showing a more marked resistance since the second half of 2025. Preliminary calculations from private consulting firms and sectoral surveys describe a February with no clear relief for the pocket. For that firm, the annual variation would be around 33%. If the number again hovers around 3%, the message will be clear: deceleration continues to be fragile, uneven, and, above all, insufficient to return predictability to the Argentine pocket. It will also function as a political and economic thermometer of a stage where inflation seems to have stabilized at a level still too high for the needs of income recovery. In a similar vein was the inflation measurement of workers elaborated by the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET), which also yielded 2.7% for February, with an accumulated 5.5% in the first two months and an annual variation of 31.1%. Other consulting firms detected even greater pressure. Equilibra estimated a monthly inflation of 2.9% and warned that the main impulses came from housing, water, electricity, and other fuels, with a jump of 6.3%, in addition to food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and hotels, and communication. According to that analysis, those segments were decisive in keeping the month's inflation high, even though other categories, such as fruits, showed corrections downward. In that scheme, housing stood out again with the highest increase since June 2024, leaving evidence that tariff and service updates continue to mark the pulse of the index. With this panorama, the data that INDEC will not only serve to know the statistical closing of February. Economist Gonzalo Carrera explained that dynamic based on a change in relative prices that is modifying the structure of household spending: while clothing and durable goods tend to become cheaper, sensitive sectors such as tariffs, meat, rents, and eating out gain weight and end up pushing the general index. That reading is not minor. The main increases were concentrated in housing, household equipment and maintenance, food and beverages, transportation, and communications. Although some reports place the index just below the January figure, most measurements maintain it at a high level for official aspirations. However, the entity introduced a nuance: if that number is confirmed, it would be the first monthly deceleration after eight consecutive months of an upward trend. In practice, it implies that the components that could provide the most relief to the IPC are losing their ability to compensate for increases in services and basic consumption. Its report described a month of disparate behavior, with a very intense first week, some subsequent moderation, some transient deflationary record, and a again loaded close. Thus, although certain goods linked to import opening or exchange rate stability may show declines or moderate increases, the core of daily family spending continues to be subject to significant pressures. In the same sense, EcoGo Consultors observed that within the food and beverage category there was a sustained acceleration in February due to the increase in the price of meat, oils, and vegetables.
